Robert J. Shiller
Born: 29 March 1946, Detroit, MI, USA
Affiliation at the time of the award: Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
Prize motivation: "for their empirical analysis of asset prices"
Field: financial economics
Prize share: 1/3
For many of us, the rise and fall of stock prices symbolizes economic development. In the 1960s, Eugene Fama demonstrated that stock price movements are impossible to predict in the short-term. In the early 1980s, however, Robert Shiller discovered that stock prices can be predicted over a longer period, such as over the course of several years. In contrast to the dominant perception, stock prices fluctuated much more than corporate dividends. Shiller's conclusion was therefore that the market is inefficient.